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As 2008 signs out and a brand New Year logs in, the global economy is unfortunately on a recessionary mode casting a pall of gloom on the outlook for IT spending in 2009. The information technology horizon though anticipates the dawn of many technologiessome new and some evolving that will go up the evolutionary curve during 2009. While research firms and analysts are giving their outlook on various technology areas, the key question everybodys asking is: Would IT decision makers spend on these technologies? Experts and industry watchers think they will because these leading-edge technologies promise better RoI. As is usual, over the year one will increasingly hear about new technologies like cloud, in premise, mash ups and host of others that will add more juice to the hype surrounding them. Here are some that will give new shape to IT during 2009, if they manage to insulate themselves against recessionary blues

Cloud Computing
SaaS on Cloud Nine
Its the hottest tech in town. How about hosting applications on a data center and remotely accessing them and paying for what you want. Thats what cloud computing promises. It creates an on demand applications building environment. According to analysts like Gartner, cloud computing is a confluence of three major trendsservice orientation, virtualization and standardization. Amazon pioneered this concept in 2006 with its elastic computing cloud on the EC 2 platform in a hosted environment. In October 2008, Microsoft launched its Cloud OS called Windows Azure. Given the down economy it is widely believed that IT spends will decrease in 2009, but at the same time technology concepts that promise greater RoI at lesser TCO will find adoption. Given that cloud computing will go through a hype cycle in the first half of 2009 with early adopters creating proof points for more adoption in the later part of the year. Cloud computing is expected to drive SaaS to the next level.

While in a typical SaaS environment multiple clients access a service providers application, but in a cloud the customer can host and run his own applications virtually. This is significant for the enterprises as they do not have to own costly hardware for in-premise deployment. This also gives the customers a sense of ownership at totally different economics. But while the cloud-based SaaS model liberates the client from the ownership and apps acquisition complexities on the part of the service provider, there is need for greater degree of compliance in terms of security, flexibility and robust data centers which can function seamlessly as per the clients requirements.

Green IT
Evolving Performance per Watt
The year 2009 would be defining Green IT, and not just as a marketing peg. At the user levelhow much energy efficiency one is achieving: heat, cooling, performance per watt, materials used, ease of recycling, etc. The emphasis in 2009 would be on building green data centers to buying servers and PCs that consume less power and increase performance. Processor vendors probably sowed the seeds of green IT by inventing the concept called performance per watt. Today vendors like Intel, AMD and Sun have host of processors that have high energy efficiency. However, until and unless an eco-system is in place for green IT the benefits cannot be accrued. For instance, if we take a data center right from the power back-up to servers it needs to be designed in an energy efficient way.

At the enterprise level, at the end points, 2009 will see a massive phasing out of CRT display panels as LCDs will become a default display standard. LCDs are more efficient compared to power guzzling CRTs. Virtualization too plays a big part in the power consumption area. By going in for thin clients organizations can centralize their data and cut down on individual desktops leading to massive savings on energy. If we look at 2008, vendors have just started scratching the surface of the green IT opportunity. The year 2009 will be more on deliverables and adoption of green IT depending on the ability of vendors to deliver green solutions matching the requirements of the customers, not just box-based solutions.

Mainstream HPC Systems
Vertical Needs
During the year one will see HPC systems becoming mainstream with rapid adoption of cluster based x86 deployments that organizations can use for scenarios like computer modeling to other high end applications. Vendors will explore the market opportunity for HPC-based systems aimed at verticals like manufacturing where a mid-size enterprise can do high-end designing. How it differs from normal systems is that it would be built to meet the demands of that particular vertical, where a user can load his unique set of requirements. The components of HPC-based mainstream system will have different capabilities compared to other conventional workstations. In large enterprise scenarios these kind of systems, satisfying heterogeneous computing demands, exist. But the same level coming to mainstream utilizing the new age multi core processors will give huge computing power at lower cost. Experts say that with concepts like virtualization (organizations can leverage HPC and create many virtual machines) gaining deeper roots, managing HPC environments are getting easier; and HPC is shifting from its typical super computing flavor. This trend will enable even small and medium enterprises to buy these HPC systems and use them for various purposes including R&D. One of the biggest prohibitors for R&D in sectors like manufacturing is the exorbitant costs of hardware required for computational modeling and digital prototypes.

Windows 7
Opening the Windows Further
At this years professional developer conference Microsoft unveiled its pre-beta version of Windows 7 that will replace Vista. Windows Vista created new benchmark in hardware with its different version, but that has in a way restricted its large scale adoption or users migrating from the stability of XP. But in Windows 7 Microsoft promises a new range of functionality and features that promises whole new range of user experience. Windows 7 is expected to help the users manage tasks better with user-friendly interface. With functions like multi-touch and a concept called Device Stage, users can now connect to multiple hardware devices without any hassles. Moreover, Microsoft is developing Win 7 with system requirement footprints for Vistawhat it means is that Vista users can seamlessly migrate to Windows 7. Moreover, Microsoft says that there will not be the need for new device drivers either. This is a smart move given the compatibility glitches it faced post the launch of Vista. While it is expected that Windows 7 will make it to the market by 2009 end, it is still early days to say whether it will come in different flavors like the Vista, which came in Basic to Ultimate. Many believe there will be unique versions of notebook computers; and Microsoft will try to separate its desktop and notebook versions in Windows 7. With Win XP users a majority and Vista itself in the adoption stage, Windows 7 sure is the OS to look out for in 2009.

Virtualization
From Apps to Devices & Services
From hype to reality would be the apt way to describe the adoption and the road ahead for virtualization. While storage and server virtualization has started happening, concepts like Virtualized Desktop Infrastructure (VDI) are yet to take root. But application virtualization in a desktop environment is happening on a bigger scale. With multiple configurations, the homogeneous distribution of hardware resources and applications has become a big challenge. It is in this backdrop that virtualization is gaining momentum. Server virtualization is nothing but hiding the complexity by masking of server resources across operating systems, physical servers, and computing resources like processors into multiple virtual machines. What will drive virtualization would be rising costs, low resource utilization, and unpredictable spikes in workloads. Companies need to be able to quickly deploy new services and applications but can no longer afford the high costs of energy, real estate, and complexity associated with server sprawl. Seeking increased business agility, enterprises are looking at virtualization technologies to get more out of their computing resources. In terms of enterprise impact, virtualization will deliver significant cost efficiency that can be achieved by reducing the number of physical devices considerably. This is gaining momentum in Indian organizations too as under-utilized hardware like storage, servers and desktops are viewed as cost centers and hence are starting the consolidation and virtualization trend.

Ultra PCs
Size Zero is In
The ultra small fully functional affordable PCs was till now exclusively for a few, that too primarily on notebooks. That scenario is fast changingthanks to the Intel Atom Processor that has ushered in a sea change in the PC form factor at economies of scale never seen before. The second half of 2008 has started a new trend called sub-notebooks that are in the sub 10-inch screen size notebook (called Netbooks) priced at sub Rs 25k and weighing just about 1kg. Similarly, ultra mini desktops have significantly reduced the machine size footprint. For the first time, ultra portable fully functional notebooks are costing less than a smart phone and attracting buyers from across both consumer and commercial segments. While Netbooks are evolving, a major hassle is the compromised keypad, but vendors are making concerted efforts to standardize the Netbooks keypad to make it as close to the fully functional keypad of a conventional notebook. But Netbooks serve the purpose of a mobile customer with a reasonable good battery life with slim form. The Netbook segment is expected to improve notebook volumes in 2009 as all the leading vendors have jumped into the bandwagon. It might not be the hottest technology but it is widely believed to be one of the most sought after tech gadget of 2009.

SOA
Maturity Leads to Better Delivery
Clearly on the maturity curve, SOA-based solutions are fast changing the way IT is deployed, with on-demand SaaS and cloud computing auguring well for its further evolution. IP driven IT companies will benefit from creating SOA repositories that can be quickly deployed as components delivered on demand. This can be deployed as a service in-premise with very little lead times. While in-premise apps deployment is necessary and cannot be done away with, what Web architectures like SOA will do is bring in high degree of agility to business and help IT systems to be better tuned to market demands and face the competitive environment. CIOs explore newer models for more tangible RoI, they will look at SOA as boosters that can usher in a new technology that will iron out problems in terms of efficient IT delivery. Gartner expects that continued evolution of the Web-centric approach will enable its use in an ever-broadening set of enterprise solutions during the next five years.

Videoconferencing
U, Me and All Together
Bigger bandwidth, decreasing price points and expensive travel will make this a segment to watch out for in 2009. Whether one is using simple IM Video interface or tele-presence, this area is at the threshold of a big boom. Better bandwidth will make the user leverage the power of the Internet to opt for videoconferencingparticularly in a recessionary environment. Some of the research findings also justify the escalation of videoconferencing in 2009. Analysts say that improvement in flat screen display screens coupled with dedicated videoconferencing technologies like tele-presence offers real time experience. While all will not go for big format videoconferencing technologies, but local players in specific geographies will offer point-to-point on-demand videoconferencing links that will gain popularity. Videoconferencing as a concept will gain more awareness during 2009, and the tag that it is expensive will slowly go away as enterprises look at cost effective tailor-made conferencing methods in alliance with local service providers. Large enterprises will go for large format dedicated videoconferencing deployments like tele-presence. The two biggest drivers for videoconferencing in 2009 would be to cut down on travel spend, and quick decision making.

Unified Communications
Multiple Faces, Single Voice
Experts believe that the more number of communications vendors an enterprise enlists the higher the degree of complexity: entering into contracts and managing SLAs and downtimes with each vendor whose deliverables differ. So it becomes a viable option for enterprises to deploy a unified communications backbone that can take care of communications applications like telephony, conferencing, email, voice mail, instant messaging, video, and collaboration across a variety of interfaces be it PC or web-based clients, telephones and mobile devices. With defined benefits and the world moving toward IP-based networks it makes more sense to go for unified communications that offers a seamless single communication backbone. Unified communications will see a lot of convergence within enterprises while the markets outside consolidate and gear up for this opportunity. The players in the fray are already upping their ante. There is huge competition between Microsoft (Office Communicator Server 2007) and IBM (Lotus Sametime 8.0). The market will further hot up in early 2009 as IBM is expected to launch its latest release of Lotus Sametime Unified (SUT) at the annual Lotusphere conference. SUT, middleware that links Sametime, will link third party PBXs.

Servers
Serving Well
From CISC to RISC to x86, servers have come long way. The OS has also evolvedwhether it be UNIX, Linux or Windowsthey have morphed into the computing landscape to be engines that power computing. Blade servers with its different manifestations like rack mountable to Blade PCs are redefining the very make up of the computing landscape. Some analysts predict the renaissance of mainframe. While it has started happening in small ways it is now restricted to very few verticals. 2009 will not be see any large scale mainframe adoption but the interest in them would be re-kindled. With all server configurations either tower or blades, x86 or RISC finding their way into enterprises, the next would be to optimally manage them. And thats what CIOs will concentrate on during 2009. Experts see a fundamental change happening here as each server will be managed at the component level and upgrades only done on what is neededjust like a desktop getting a bigger RAM. So enterprises will not buy a new server, instead increase the memory foot print. With already high levels of virtualization at the server levels optimizing one server or one Blade will further cut down on cost and make for lower running costs. The key would be to keep server sprawl to the minimum but tweaked to optimum performance.

Shrikanth G
shrikanthg@cybermedia.co.in

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