Tech leaders should stop whining that they can no longer read the future
Saturday, September 01, 2001
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Silicon Valley workplaces today are bursting with all the cheer and optimism
of a Dorothea Lange Depression photograph. In one poignant tableau, I witnessed
a salvage man in the parking lot of a troubled dot-com using discarded network
wiring to lash a load of PCs and office furniture to his truck. And for those
left behind, the dimmed lights and switched-off air conditioning has imbued many
cubicles with the ambiance of a sweat lodge. A wry graffito is popping up in
lunchrooms, too: "Due to the energy crisis, the light at the end of the
tunnel has been turned off."
If top execs are dismayed by such wisecracking, they ought to realize that in
their own public comments, many keep parroting a sanitized version of the same
droll slogan: "We’re continuing to experience limited visibility."
Countless high-tech execs have been repeating this pickle-in-the-punchbowl of
a phrase in the last few months. Overnight, it elbowed aside all that whizzy New
Economy jargon like viral marketing and became high tech’s lament.
Translation: We can’t figure out when or if anybody will want our products,
and we can’t figure out when or if we’ll ever make money again.
Call me a stickler, but somehow I expect a little more leadership and yes,
vision, from the well-compensated folks running multibillion-dollar corporations
who spent the last decade reinventing the way the world works. Instead, Silicon
Valley’s business culture has flopped from turbo-testosterone into the passive
voice. With few exceptions, such as Oracle’s CEO Larry Ellison, who now seems
focused on pushing his company’s new products and services rather than
debating the weather forecast, many execs seem terrified to plot a new course
and get moving on it.
I guess if we take the techies at their words, their success to date was due
to a clairvoyance they once possessed about the customers’ intentions.
Apparently, they used to order products to meet the opportunities that floated.
No leadership necessary. No marketing required. Innovation optional.
A few practical voices aren’t buying into this image of the Valley as
helpless and hapless economic victim. "This talk about visibility is
bull," says Christopher Lochhead, a former marketing executive at both
Scient and Vantive. "They have as much visibility as they had before, they
just don’t like what they see." And what they see is more demanding
buyers, excess inventories they should have anticipated, and a dearth of new
killer products customers can’t live without.
So go to work, gang. Instead of putting the brakes on spending and hoping for
the air to clear, it seems like an excellent time to show up with a compelling
proposition and products to help companies get more efficient.
Another expert notes that managing during times of growth and prosperity
demands different skills than leading during hard times. Some leaders find it
possible to adjust their styles. Others do not. That’s why there is so much
turnover at the top as we move through the normal business cycle—especially in
industries where the cycle operates with a vengeance. No coincidence that
Timothy Koogle bemoaned, "We simply don’t have good visibility on the
back half of the year," the same day Yahoo! announced it would replace him
as CEO.
For your own health and the Valley’s morale, tech leaders, drop the
"visibility" thing, or at least start talking in the active voice
about what you’re doing. Innovation, passion, and inspired marketing have
always pushed technology forward. Surely you can still see that.
By Joan O’C Hamilton
in BusinessWeek. Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc