Its network upgrade is set to create a new industry standard
Wednesday, May 14, 2003
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For more than a century, the phone companies in America have drawn their
power and wealth from their venerable networks of switches and the copper lines
that lead to nearly every home in the country. But now the biggest of the Bells,
Verizon Communications Inc, is coming to grips with the limitations of the
traditional phone network—and it’s making ambitious plans to replace it.
"Having watched this industry for 35 years," says Bruce Gordon,
president of Verizon’s retail division, "I don’t believe it’s a
network that will take us into the next decade."
So
Verizon is pulling out its wallet to retool. Faced with growing competition from
cable-TV companies and others, it’s committing itself to the most dramatic
network upgrade in its history. As BusinessWeek Online reported on March 18, the
plan is to hitch every customer in its local-phone region to a blazing fast
connection. This means speeds of 5 to 10 megabits per second, up to 20 times
faster than today’s typical broadband connections through digital subscriber
lines or cable modems. That’s fast enough to provide voice, video, and
digital-TV signals on a single connection to the customer.
The company won’t say how much the project will cost or how long it will
take, but it’s sure to cost billions of dollars, and could take 10 or more
years to roll out. "These copper loops will be replaced by fiber-optic
technology. We’ll begin initial rollout in 2004, if technical trials... and
regulations go well," said vice-chairman Lawrence T Babbio in a March 19
conference call.
Verizon’s gambit may well be the best news out of the telecom sector since
the industry went into a recession nearly three years ago. During the boom, the
industry fell prey to over-ambitious business plans and ill-conceived mergers,
cobbled together with financial engineering. Such practices led to the
bankruptcy of industry giants like WorldCom Inc and Global Crossing. Instead of
wasting investors’ money paying a huge premium to buy another company, Verizon
is proposing to invest slowly and steadily in the improvement of its network.
The benefits could be enormous. Verizon, which has a 2003 capital budget of
up to $13.5 billion, one of the largest of any company in the US, could help
stabilize the struggling telecom-equipment sector. The spending would trickle
through the tech food chain and into the economy. More importantly, it could
provide a platform for the innovation of new products and services, from digital
entertainment to cheap video calls.
Pulling this off, though, will be quite a challenge for a company that failed
at several high-tech ventures in the ’90s. Verizon’s merger with John Malone’s
cable empire, the former Tele-Communications Inc, fell through. Its attempt to
enter the interactive-TV business fizzled, too. And while Verizon has stumbled,
cable-TV companies have raced out to an early lead in broadband.
Still, Verizon’s offering, when it arrives, should make today’s broadband
look positively pokey. The company stands to benefit from plummeting prices of
high-speed technology, which are off as much as 75% since the ’90s. High-speed
wireless technologies also have become better and cheaper. These are systems
that dispatch fast streams of data to antennas miles away. To reach every
customer, Gordon says, Verizon is betting on a combination of fiber and wireless—but
is keeping quiet on the details.
Plenty of challenges lie ahead. Verizon paid down $10 billion of debt last
year but still ended 2002 with a heavy $54 billion of IOUs. Stress on the
balance sheet, combined with the need to pay a dividend, limits the company’s
financial flexibility. CEO Ivan G Seidenberg, a former union cable splicer, will
be under pressure to seek painful concessions from organized labor to lower
costs for the broadband project ahead. He’ll have to move fast, too. Verizon
already faces enormous competition from wireless companies and resellers, such
as AT&T and WorldCom, which eat away at the company’s core business. These
resellers have captured about 8% of the market as of 2002. That share is
expected to double by 2004, estimates communications analyst John Hodulik of UBS
Warburg.
By Steve Rosenbush in New York in BusinessWeek. Copyright 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc