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Though disasters cannot be prevented, the loss caused by them can certainly be minimized by proper utilization of Information and Communication Technology.

There are four key phases in the disaster management cycle where the role of ICT is inevitableMitigation, Preparedness, Response, and Recovery. Mitigation includes any activity that prevents or reduces the chances or damaging effects of a disaster. Preparedness means a plan or a preparation to help the response and rescue service operations. Response includes actions taken to save lives and prevent damage to property. Recovery involves those activities that help the community to return to a sense of normalcy after a disaster.

One can mitigate and prepare only if one has a proper early warning system that may propagate the warning in the shortest possible time to the community at risk.

An early warning system involves several players. At one end, there is the central authority that monitors and issues the warning and at the other end is the community for whom the warning is meant. In between, there are channels to link these two ends.

There are several ICT tools that can be used for linking these ends, ranging from traditional to modern.

ICT Inclusive
ICT can fulfill the needs of response and recovery. A disaster results in the loss of a significant number of people in terms of injury and displacement. Affected people might need food shelter, or immediate medical attention. Also, a disaster results in creating ideal breeding grounds for epidemics.

In the immediate aftermath of a disaster, special software packages can be used to register missing persons, administrating online requests and keeping a track of relief operations. In addition, geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing software are being effectively used in all phases of disaster management. Thus, by the use of ICT, one can act promptly within a short period of time and at the same time manage the resources available.

The government of India has taken various initiatives in the form of several systems with the inclusion of ICT. One of the recently launched systems is the National Early Warning System for tsunami and storm surges in the Indian Ocean.

What Went Wrong?
The disastrous tsunami, which took place on December 26, 2004 and took thousands of lives, could have been prevented if the alert sounded by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre in Hawaii had reached the community at risk in time. Scientists at the Tsunami Warning Center had monitored the extraordinary seismic activity and issued a tsunami warning within an hour of the occurrence of the earthquake that caused the tsunami. The warning, however, could not prevent the loss of lives and damage to property.

An analysis of the disaster would bring out the fact that the fault did not lie at the warning-generating end; it was, rather, at the warning-receiving end. There was a communication gap between the Tsunami Warning Center and the communities at risk. Thus, the real challenge is to disseminate the warning to a large number of communities across the countries in the shortest possible time. According to Prakash Kumar, joint secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India, Timely dissemination of warning to the region or people likely to be affected is a crucial factor in disaster mitigation and in saving valuable lives.

Although it was too late for Indonesia to react, the lives in countries like India, Sri Lanka, and Thailand could have been saved had the warning been received properly and acted upon in time.

Early Warning for Tsunami
The 2004 disaster was the genesis of the thought of the inclusion of ICT in the form of an Early Warning System for Tsunami. After the December 26, 2004 tsunami, the Indian government decided to set up an early warning system to mitigate such potential losses. According to Dr Shailesh Nayak, chairman, INCOIS, Harnessing the advantages of ICT is extremely important for any warning system designed to tackle natural hazards like tsunami. Most warning systems comprise data reception from sensor networks, real-time communication, data analysis, data display, numerical modeling as well as generation and dissemination of warnings. Most successful systems deploy the right choice of ICT tools to generate and disseminate timely and accurate warnings. The same has been done in implementing the Tsunami Early Warning System.

The system was aimed at managing the events in times of natural disasters, for instance, getting information from censors in real time to a central location, processing the data using scientific models for prediction of events like tsunamis and cyclones, dissemination of prediction along with warning or advisory based on the outputs from the models to the people likely to be affected, quick compilation of information on people killed and separated from their families and equitable distribution of relief material, etc.

The NEWS Advantage
The government approved the project on the Establishment of National Early Warning System (NEWS) for tsunami and storm surges in the Indian Ocean in October 2005 at a cost of Rs 125 crore, with the Ministry of Earth Sciences as the nodal ministry. The target was to make NEWS operational by September 2007 after necessary testing and simulations. It was planned to set up the system at the Indian National Center for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) in Hyderabad.

The system was dedicated to the nation on October 15, 2007. A Tsunami Warning Center was also inaugurated on the same day to receive near real time seismic data for monitoring of tsunamigenic earthquakes. To fulfill this purpose, bottom pressure sensors have been installed at the bottom of the sea in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea for the detection of anomalous tsunami waves. Tide gauges are installed along the Indian Coast, islands and in few of the offshore platforms connected to the early warning center through V-SAT.

According to Kumar, The backbone of the national tsunami early warning center is based on ICT. The early warning system receives real time data from seismic network, both within the country as well as from outside. The bottom pressure recorders installed in the deep oceans are the key sensors to confirm the triggering of tsunami.

A model for the prediction of tsunami generation and propagation is part of the NEWS and generates scenarios of inundation along the entire Indian coast. The entire process of determination of the strength of an earthquake is completed within twenty minutes. The scenarios will be continuously upgraded on the basis of refining of the bathymetry of the coasts and high-resolution morphology of the coastal areas.

Video Wall: National Early Warning System for Tsunami & Storm Surges

The National Early Warning Center can generate and disseminate timely advisories to the control room of the Ministry of Home Affairs for further dissemination of information to the public. For the dissemination of alerts to the MHA, a satellite-based virtual private network for disaster management support has been established. This network enables center to disseminate warnings to the MHA as well as to the state emergency operation centers. Messages can also be sent by phone, fax, SMS, or emails to authorized officials. The cyclone-warning network of the Indian Meteorological Department and electronic ocean information boards of INCOIS could be effectively used for dissemination of warnings directly to the public.

The Sri Lankan Model
In Sri Lanka, a combined initiative has been taken by Sarvodaya, the largest community-based organization of Sri Lanka, and LIRNEasia, a regional ICT policy think tank, which collaborated to evaluate the suitability ICT for the last mile of a national disaster warning system. Started in Sri Lanka, it may be extended to other developing countries.

According to the proposed model designed by LIRNEasia and Sarvodaya, the tsunami warning system can be seen as a chain from first link or level (hazard detection and monitoring system) to the last level, from village level to the people). The intermediate levels are various administrative structures like national, state, district, and blocks. The village level is also called the last mile. This is where LIRNEasia wants India to get strengthened. Says Dr Rohan Samarajiva, executive director, LIRNEasia, A chain is as strong as its weakest link. If any of the links fail, warning will fail and lives will be lost.

The last-mile warning system uses various technologies of ICTaddressable satellite radio, GSM Mobile, remote alarm device based on GSM, CDMA phones, and VSATswith three additional combinations of satellite radio and phone devices. The partners involved in developing and implementing this system are Dialog Telecom, Sri Lankas largest mobile operator; WorldSpace; and TVEAP. The project, designed and commenced in 2005, is funded by IDRC in Canada.

But this system cannot work without the support of the local government. According to Samarajiva, The full system will work only when the government comes into the picture. This will take time. In the meantime, we plan to set up a hazard information system, where we train villagers and give them the equipment to better receive messages.

The organization is conducting various workshops in the developing countries. But, as far as the acceptability of this model in India is concerned, the situation is not yet clear, as Samarajiva says, It is too early to tell on the acceptability issue. This is for the Indian actors to decide. As researchers, we can only tell the actors in India that without improvements at the last mile and giving warning to the villages, early warning will not be effective and lives cannot be saved.

The Indian and Sri Lankan models of early warning systems are well equipped to disseminate advisories directly to the administrators, the media, and the public through SMS, email, fax, etc. But, this itself would not make the models successful. The important thing is to assure that the warning reaches the needy, especially in remote villages where ICT equipment are scarce and there is less awareness among the people about the use of ICT equipment and acting on the warning when received.

There is no doubt that the above models can efficiently generate warning in time and can further disseminate information effectively to the authorities concerned, but with such a low penetration level of ICT in tsunami prone areas, it is extremely difficult to establish an effective disaster warning system. For these communities, it is essential to think of other means, such as community radio or public address systems, for effective disaster warning. Unless the ICT penetration is reasonably increased, it is difficult to guarantee that any community can be free from the risk of disasters irrespective of the efficiency of the disaster monitoring system.

Sandeep Sharma
sandeeps@cybermedia.co.in

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