Home  |  Newsletter | Feedback | Advertise - Online  | Help

Google
Web dqindia.com
Search by issue  | Sitemap

• Visit pcquest.com to know all about the business benefits of IT infrastructure outsourcing • Ad : Visit the New Living Digital 2.0

 
Home > Top Stories

Beware The Dragon
It’s wake-up time for India’s ambling software elephant. With cheaper manpower, better infrastructure and speedier decisions, the Chinese dragon is catching up fast
Sarita Rani
Monday, March 11, 2002

This season last year, there were vague mur-murs about China in the Indian IT industry. "They are cheaper than us," these mur
murs said. "Do you suppose they are a possible threat to the Indian software industry?"

The murmurs have now turned into something more significant… The ‘China Challenge’ was an important issue at Dataquest’s ‘Look up India’ in January, as well as Nasscom’s ICT 2002 last month. Suddenly, experts on China are hot in demand everywhere. Dataquest takes a detailed look at China’s IT Industry. Also, we pass the verdict on whether India needs to be worrying about competition from the Middle Kingdom. The ruling—Yes. Here’s why…

Don’t send your marketing chiefs, your vice-presidents or your secretaries to China. Don’t take their word for it. Go there yourself and check out the new China. It’s got energy, it’s got enthusiasm, and it’s got vigor. It’s also got a new generation that’s been untouched by communism. Today’s generation has not seen the stark side of communism and 20 years of reform have changed China," Jesse Parker, executive director of The Murrow Center told India’s IT CEOs at Nasscom last month.

China vs India

Attribute

China

India

Population (in billion) 1.3 1.03
Literacy Rate 82.00% 54%
Area 9.6 billion sq kms 3.3 billion sq kms
Total GDP $1 trillion $500 bn
GDP growth (CAGR 1990-2000) 10% 6%
Per Capita GDP (at 1998 prices) $735 $495
Total Exports (in billion) $249 in 2000 $47 in 2000
Share in World Trade 3.40% 0.80%

IT Industry Figures

Calendar 2001

2000-01

IT spending as % of GDP 1.10% 1.68%
IT Industry turnover (in billion) $46.10 $12
Hardware Exports (in billion) $26.4* $0.4#
Software Exports (in billion) $1.2* $6#
Installed PC Base (in million) 22 7
PC Penetration/1000 13.2 6.2
PC Sales /mn units 7.2 1.74
Internet user base (in million) 22.5 3.5^
International Bandwidth 7.5 Gbps 1 Gbps
Telephone Lines (in million) 175* 34.5^
Telephone Lines/100 people 8.6 3.4^
Mobile Phones (in million) 136 5.7^
*Estimates for calendar 2001  #Estimates for 2001-02  ^Figures as of date
Sources: Industry & Dataquest

The Middle Kingdom’s ‘New Economy’ has taken off. And how! What matters more is that it has taken off in directions no one ever thought of. Often dismissed as having created nothing since the abacus" (though people often forget paper, printing and gunpowder), China today is the third largest electronic hardware supplier to the world after the US and Japan. Derided among western economic writers as a hawker of cheap plastic toys, China today produces micro-controllers and Integrated Chips as it does everything else - by the millions. Accused of giving the world nothing more than Confucius and Communism, China is now getting ready to give the world an unending supply of computer programmers.

And that was why Parker—armed with 20-plus years of business experience with China—was at Nasscom, and also why IT Industry CEOs were sitting there listening to him. The world seems to have suddenly woken up to the fact that China does not connote images of millions of peasants toiling away in the vast countryside under an oppressive communist regime. No doubt, the peasants and the countryside are still there. As is the communist regime. But the new China also has bustling coastal towns like Shanghai—ultra-modern, neon-clad and rich. The country has 22.5 million Internet users, almost eight times more than India, and an installed PC base three times as large. Its export revenues are five times of India’s and the per capita GDP twice as much. It also owns one Special Administrative Region—Hong Kong—whose per capita GDP is higher than that of its former owner, Britain. Says Parker, "China is a modernizing economy and has been seeing structural reforms for the past 20 years. It is already becoming the world’s manufacturing base. The pace is vigorous and the infrastructure is growing at a terrific pace. Eventually, China will build software." While the world wasn’t paying much attention, China it seems, has quietly changed within.

From the cultural to the computer revolution
It’s not a change that came easily. China’s history is littered with rebellion and revolution in capital letters —The Boxer Rebellion, the May Fourth Movement and finally the Long March led by an assistant librarian from Beijing University in October 1934. Fifteen years later, an assistant librarian called Mao Zedong, established the People’s Republic of China and led the country through a series of programs—the Great Leap Forward in 1958 and The Cultural Revolution of 1964 in which millions died.

Sleeping with the Enemy
Forging a partnership with the Chinese would be the best way to deal with a potential competitor
Partnering Success:  ParkerIs the Indian IT sector under threat from the Chinese IT industry? Just as the Indian IT sector has reached world class levels of quality and performance, is a new threat emerging in the East? Should Indian software and services companies ‘protect’ their competitive advantage? Should Chinese Premiere Zhu Rongji’s ‘invitation’ to Indian companies to establish offices in Shanghai be viewed as a legitimate request to establish commercial links or a Chinese ‘trick’ to learn the secrets of India’s astounding success?

Debating and answering these questions avoids the more fundamental questions. Indian IT executives have matured in an environment of dramatic and rapid change. Ask anyone who has worked in the Silicon Valley how rapidly competitive advantages are eroded and replaced with new business propositions generated by young companies with new ideas. Indian IT executives should not be discussing how they can protect their current # 1 position in the outsourced software and services segment. Instead, companies should be developing innovative strategies to begin to establish new value propositions which respond to new or anticipated realities: i.e. the rise of the Chinese software industry. We still remember how pundits in America had disqualified low quality Japanese imports!

Ask any successful product manager in an IT company and he will readily subscribe to the ‘eat your own children’ strategy of developing new products and services. Successful companies replace their best selling product or service with a new offering before that product/service reaches full maturity. If a company fails to do this, its bestseller will soon be replaced by a stronger competitor. In fact, the company may not even see the competitor coming.

What is causing the Chinese IT industry and Chinese technology entrepreneurs to be a threat to the Indian IT sector? China has found its ‘groove’ after more than 30 years of political and economic turmoil starting from the May 4 Movement to the beginning of the Deng Xiaoping-led reform program in the early 1980s. The PRC (Peoples’ Republic of China) government made a conscious decision to initiate rapid economic reforms first, placing political reforms on a much slower trajectory. The result has been socioeconomic stability. Of course, Chinese society has changed dramatically in the last 20 years and there remains substantial unrest in certain sectors of Chinese society. However, this broad stability continues to enable blinding modernization.

Besides, this stability has allowed the domestic economy to develop extremely rapidly, especially the manufacturing sector. By employing joint venture and technology transfer structures to facilitate foreign direct investment during the late 1980s and 1990s (many of which were not favorable to foreign investors), Chinese enterprises of all sizes have been able to modernize their production processes and produce a much higher quality product. While the Chinese manufacturing sector still has a long way to go, enterprises such as Ha’er have begun to export consumer durables under their own brand name rather than just being low cost OEM suppliers. From the Japan example, this is the first indication that an export economy is developing.

This vital and rapidly growing manufacturing sector needs software. Interaction with software entrepreneurs in Beijing and Shanghai showed that the biggest IT opportunities exist in continuing to modernize Chinese industry and connect industries together through advanced supply chain management communications and software. These firms are not replacing out-dated software packages, but are installing software for the first time. When will another opportunity to build software infrastructure for an economy the size of China’s present itself? Not in my lifetime!

Third, the government has invested in, and largely completed the building of national IT infrastructure. Firms like China Netcom and others have completed national fiber backbone projects and are now expanding their metro offerings. In addition, the Special Economic Zones (SEZs), first promoted by Deng Xiaoping in the early 1980s, have, for more than 20 years, encouraged and enabled entrepreneurs to start leading edge companies. Many firms have failed, many have succeeded, but what is clear is that the government policy of enabling business has produced spectacular results. New SEZs in Shanghai’s PuDong commercial area are dedicated to IT, especially software.

Another factor is that the Chinese are very entrepreneurial (just like Indians). Throughout Chinese history, there are several examples of individuals taking their destiny into their own hands and developing substantial businesses.

The Indian IT sector must continue to expand its global leadership position. At the same time, Indian firms will find it beneficial to encourage an engagement with the Chinese market. Whether it is starting a development center in Shanghai to lower costs or establishing a Chinese subsidiary to exploit the Chinese domestic market, or another innovative strategy, an engagement will serve to reinforce India’s leadership position and simultaneously identify new markets.

The message to Indian IT executives is: Engage with the Chinese economy as the world leader that you are—don’t avoid a potential competitor and become defensive. 

Jesse Parker
The author writes, teaches and consults on international business subjects at The Fletcher School of Law & Diplomacy at Tufts University and is CEO of Changsha Consulting, Inc. He is the co-founder of Indo-China Business Cooperation Institute (ICBCI), a new venture to facilitate business relations between the two countries

This much we know. What most people don’t know is that the man who led what is called China’s ‘Second Revolution’—Deng Xiaoping—was Mao’s fellow traveler in The Long March. At about the same time that Mikhael Gorbachev was experimenting with Perestroika and Glasnost in the former USSR, Chinese premier Deng Xiaoping was creating an ‘opening to the world’ on the mainland. Gorbachev did it under the world’s spotlight. Xiaoping kicked off the economic reforms innocuously at the Communist Party’s 15th five- yearly Congress in 1977 when he suggested that tens of thousands of small and medium state enterprises be thrown in private waters to swim or sink.

Since then, it’s been a steady march upwards. For most of the last two decades, China’s economy has shown double digit growth with an average CAGR (Compound Aggregate Growth Ratio) of 10% in the last decade. Coastal cities have been boomtowns. But even in inland provinces, collectives and communes are changing into privately held enterprises. In 1999, guarantees that acknowledged the private sector were written into the Constitution for the first time.

Next Page :

Export orientation

Page(s)   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  

Print Comment Email DiggDigg DeliciousDel.icio.us RedittReddit TwitterTwitter









Collective Intelligence @ Work

Recession- Guest or Ghost?

'We are open' - Eyewash or Eye-catcher?

And your stocking says?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Magazine Subscription | Sitemap | Contact Us | About Us | Advertising Print | Mediakit Print | jobs@cybermedia

Other CyberMedia web sites
  [Voice&Data]  [CIOL]  [PCQuest]  [Living Digital]  [IDC India]
  [Global Services Media ]  [DQ Channels]  [DQweek]  [CyberMedia Events]
  [Cybermedia Digital]  [CyberMedia India]   [Cyber Astro
  [BioSpectrum]  [BioSpectrum Asia]  [DARE]  [Technology Review]