This season last year, there were vague mur-murs about China in the Indian IT
industry. "They are cheaper than us," these mur
murs said. "Do you suppose they are a possible threat to the Indian
software industry?"
The murmurs have now turned into something more significant… The ‘China
Challenge’ was an important issue at Dataquest’s ‘Look up India’ in
January, as well as Nasscom’s ICT 2002 last month. Suddenly, experts on China
are hot in demand everywhere. Dataquest takes a detailed look at China’s IT
Industry. Also, we pass the verdict on whether India needs to be worrying about
competition from the Middle Kingdom. The ruling—Yes. Here’s why…
Don’t send your marketing chiefs, your vice-presidents or
your secretaries to China. Don’t take their word for it. Go there yourself and
check out the new China. It’s got energy, it’s got enthusiasm, and it’s
got vigor. It’s also got a new generation that’s been untouched by
communism. Today’s generation has not seen the stark side of communism and 20
years of reform have changed China," Jesse Parker, executive director of
The Murrow Center told India’s IT CEOs at Nasscom last month.
| China
vs India |
|
Attribute
|
China
|
India
|
| Population
(in billion) |
1.3 |
1.03 |
| Literacy
Rate |
82.00% |
54% |
| Area |
9.6
billion sq kms |
3.3
billion sq kms |
| Total
GDP |
$1
trillion |
$500
bn |
| GDP
growth (CAGR 1990-2000) |
10% |
6% |
| Per
Capita GDP (at 1998 prices) |
$735 |
$495 |
| Total
Exports (in billion) |
$249
in 2000 |
$47
in 2000 |
| Share
in World Trade |
3.40% |
0.80% |
|
IT
Industry Figures
|
Calendar
2001
|
2000-01
|
| IT
spending as % of GDP |
1.10% |
1.68% |
| IT
Industry turnover (in billion) |
$46.10 |
$12 |
| Hardware
Exports (in billion) |
$26.4* |
$0.4# |
| Software
Exports (in billion) |
$1.2* |
$6# |
| Installed
PC Base (in million) |
22 |
7 |
| PC
Penetration/1000 |
13.2 |
6.2 |
| PC
Sales /mn units |
7.2 |
1.74 |
| Internet
user base (in million) |
22.5 |
3.5^ |
| International
Bandwidth |
7.5
Gbps |
1
Gbps |
| Telephone
Lines (in million) |
175* |
34.5^ |
| Telephone
Lines/100 people |
8.6 |
3.4^ |
| Mobile
Phones (in million) |
136 |
5.7^ |
| *Estimates
for calendar 2001 #Estimates
for 2001-02 ^Figures as of
date |
| Sources:
Industry & Dataquest |
The Middle Kingdom’s ‘New Economy’ has taken off. And
how! What matters more is that it has taken off in directions no one ever
thought of. Often dismissed as having created nothing since the abacus"
(though people often forget paper, printing and gunpowder), China today is the
third largest electronic hardware supplier to the world after the US and Japan.
Derided among western economic writers as a hawker of cheap plastic toys, China
today produces micro-controllers and Integrated Chips as it does everything else
- by the millions. Accused of giving the world nothing more than Confucius and
Communism, China is now getting ready to give the world an unending supply of
computer programmers.
And that was why Parker—armed with 20-plus years of
business experience with China—was at Nasscom, and also why IT Industry CEOs
were sitting there listening to him. The world seems to have suddenly woken up
to the fact that China does not connote images of millions of peasants toiling
away in the vast countryside under an oppressive communist regime. No doubt, the
peasants and the countryside are still there. As is the communist regime. But
the new China also has bustling coastal towns like Shanghai—ultra-modern,
neon-clad and rich. The country has 22.5 million Internet users, almost eight
times more than India, and an installed PC base three times as large. Its export
revenues are five times of India’s and the per capita GDP twice as much. It
also owns one Special Administrative Region—Hong Kong—whose per capita GDP
is higher than that of its former owner, Britain. Says Parker, "China is a
modernizing economy and has been seeing structural reforms for the past 20
years. It is already becoming the world’s manufacturing base. The pace is
vigorous and the infrastructure is growing at a terrific pace. Eventually, China
will build software." While the world wasn’t paying much attention, China
it seems, has quietly changed within.
From the cultural to the computer revolution
It’s not a change that came easily. China’s history is littered with
rebellion and revolution in capital letters —The Boxer Rebellion, the May
Fourth Movement and finally the Long March led by an assistant librarian from
Beijing University in October 1934. Fifteen years later, an assistant librarian
called Mao Zedong, established the People’s Republic of China and led the
country through a series of programs—the Great Leap Forward in 1958 and The
Cultural Revolution of 1964 in which millions died.
| Sleeping
with the Enemy |
| Forging
a partnership with the Chinese would be the best way to deal with a
potential competitor |
Is
the Indian IT sector under threat from the Chinese IT industry? Just
as the Indian IT sector has reached world class levels of quality
and performance, is a new threat emerging in the East? Should Indian
software and services companies ‘protect’ their competitive
advantage? Should Chinese Premiere Zhu Rongji’s ‘invitation’
to Indian companies to establish offices in Shanghai be viewed as a
legitimate request to establish commercial links or a Chinese ‘trick’
to learn the secrets of India’s astounding success?
Debating and
answering these questions avoids the more fundamental questions.
Indian IT executives have matured in an environment of dramatic and
rapid change. Ask anyone who has worked in the Silicon Valley how
rapidly competitive advantages are eroded and replaced with new
business propositions generated by young companies with new ideas.
Indian IT executives should not be discussing how they can protect
their current # 1 position in the outsourced software and services
segment. Instead, companies should be developing innovative
strategies to begin to establish new value propositions which
respond to new or anticipated realities: i.e. the rise of the
Chinese software industry. We still remember how pundits in America
had disqualified low quality Japanese imports!
Ask any successful
product manager in an IT company and he will readily subscribe to
the ‘eat your own children’ strategy of developing new products
and services. Successful companies replace their best selling
product or service with a new offering before that product/service
reaches full maturity. If a company fails to do this, its bestseller
will soon be replaced by a stronger competitor. In fact, the company
may not even see the competitor coming.
What is causing the
Chinese IT industry and Chinese technology entrepreneurs to be a
threat to the Indian IT sector? China has found its ‘groove’
after more than 30 years of political and economic turmoil starting
from the May 4 Movement to the beginning of the Deng Xiaoping-led
reform program in the early 1980s. The PRC (Peoples’ Republic of
China) government made a conscious decision to initiate rapid
economic reforms first, placing political reforms on a much slower
trajectory. The result has been socioeconomic stability. Of course,
Chinese society has changed dramatically in the last 20 years and
there remains substantial unrest in certain sectors of Chinese
society. However, this broad stability continues to enable blinding
modernization.
Besides, this
stability has allowed the domestic economy to develop extremely
rapidly, especially the manufacturing sector. By employing joint
venture and technology transfer structures to facilitate foreign
direct investment during the late 1980s and 1990s (many of which
were not favorable to foreign investors), Chinese enterprises of all
sizes have been able to modernize their production processes and
produce a much higher quality product. While the Chinese
manufacturing sector still has a long way to go, enterprises such as
Ha’er have begun to export consumer durables under their own brand
name rather than just being low cost OEM suppliers. From the Japan
example, this is the first indication that an export economy is
developing.
This vital and
rapidly growing manufacturing sector needs software. Interaction
with software entrepreneurs in Beijing and Shanghai showed that the
biggest IT opportunities exist in continuing to modernize Chinese
industry and connect industries together through advanced supply
chain management communications and software. These firms are not
replacing out-dated software packages, but are installing software
for the first time. When will another opportunity to build software
infrastructure for an economy the size of China’s present itself?
Not in my lifetime!
Third, the government
has invested in, and largely completed the building of national IT
infrastructure. Firms like China Netcom and others have completed
national fiber backbone projects and are now expanding their metro
offerings. In addition, the Special Economic Zones (SEZs), first
promoted by Deng Xiaoping in the early 1980s, have, for more than 20
years, encouraged and enabled entrepreneurs to start leading edge
companies. Many firms have failed, many have succeeded, but what is
clear is that the government policy of enabling business has
produced spectacular results. New SEZs in Shanghai’s PuDong
commercial area are dedicated to IT, especially software.
Another factor is
that the Chinese are very entrepreneurial (just like Indians).
Throughout Chinese history, there are several examples of
individuals taking their destiny into their own hands and developing
substantial businesses.
The Indian IT sector
must continue to expand its global leadership position. At the same
time, Indian firms will find it beneficial to encourage an
engagement with the Chinese market. Whether it is starting a
development center in Shanghai to lower costs or establishing a
Chinese subsidiary to exploit the Chinese domestic market, or
another innovative strategy, an engagement will serve to reinforce
India’s leadership position and simultaneously identify new
markets.
The message to Indian
IT executives is: Engage with the Chinese economy as the world
leader that you are—don’t avoid a potential competitor and
become defensive.
Jesse Parker
The author writes, teaches and consults on international business
subjects at The Fletcher School of Law & Diplomacy at Tufts
University and is CEO of Changsha Consulting, Inc. He is the
co-founder of Indo-China Business Cooperation Institute (ICBCI), a
new venture to facilitate business relations between the two
countries |
|
This much we know. What most people don’t know is that the
man who led what is called China’s ‘Second Revolution’—Deng Xiaoping—was
Mao’s fellow traveler in The Long March. At about the same time that Mikhael
Gorbachev was experimenting with Perestroika and Glasnost in the former USSR,
Chinese premier Deng Xiaoping was creating an ‘opening to the world’ on the
mainland. Gorbachev did it under the world’s spotlight. Xiaoping kicked off
the economic reforms innocuously at the Communist Party’s 15th five- yearly
Congress in 1977 when he suggested that tens of thousands of small and medium
state enterprises be thrown in private waters to swim or sink.
Since then, it’s been a steady march upwards. For most of
the last two decades, China’s economy has shown double digit growth with an
average CAGR (Compound Aggregate Growth Ratio) of 10% in the last decade.
Coastal cities have been boomtowns. But even in inland provinces, collectives
and communes are changing into privately held enterprises. In 1999, guarantees
that acknowledged the private sector were written into the Constitution for the
first time. Next Page : Export orientation Page(s) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
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