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In a balmy May night in 1991, a Swissair Airbus took off from the IGI Airport, New Delhi. It was headed for Zurich, Switzerland. As some of the passengers figured out, there was something special in the cargo. At the airport, there was much heightened security around the cargo-hold and officials seemed unusually nervous and edgy. In its belly, the Swiss aircraft was hauling 20 tonnes of gold from the Indian governments treasury, to be sold in the international marketplace. A news item in the NYT stated that the gold was sold for around $234 mn, priced at $11.7 mn a ton.

Some days later, another 46 tonnes of gold was carted away to the Bank of England, London. But this time, the consignment was drawn from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) coffers and pledged in return for loans from the Bank of England, and Japan. The hush-hush transaction had been necessitated due to the terrible state of the Indian economy at that point in time. The situation so was bad that the near-zilch forex reserves were just enough to cover a few weeks of imports, and the country was on the verge of defaulting on loan repayments. At that point, the finance minister, Dr Manmohan Singh could only wring his hands as the gold was moved out of India.

Naturally, as soon as the news leaked, there was uproar throughout India. Gold is more than a precious metal for Indians, it is a sign of prosperity and wellness. People decried the governments decision; many termed it as a sell-out, while others equated it to mortgaging national honor. Indeed, Indias credibility had touched rock bottom, lenders were not willing to loan without gold as a mortgage (that too insisting on moving it physically). At that time, the exchange rate was some 20 rupees to a US dollar.

This ripple (gold reserves transfer), in time, converged into a wave that changed the course of the Indian economy. Under pressure from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India had to liberalize the economy and open up the markets. The rest, as they say, is history.

Over 16 years have passed since that gold was sold, and so much has changed. Made in India is a tag used with pride and Indian businesses are creating news all overbe it steel or tea. Even Indian forex reserves, which had dipped to less than $1 bn in 1991, have crossed the $200 bn mark. With GDP growing at around 9% for the past few years, and massive inflow of FDI, the picture is quite rosy. An indicator of the same is the Indian Rupee or INR that is appreciating. Today, it stands at around 40 INR to a USD. Yet, not everyone seems to be celebrating. The reasons are not hard to miss.

Little Miss Muffet
For the past decade or so, the IT Industry has been the most estimable sector of the economy. Growing at over 20% per year, the industry, according to Nasscom figures, is set to touch $60 bn by 2010. Much of this growth can be attributed to cost arbitrage. The idea is fairly simple: earn in USD, pay in INR and sing tralalala on your way to the bank. Due to the big differential in value terms (it was 48 INR per USD in 2002), Indian companies were able to sell services much cheaply. And foreigners woke up to outsourcing.

Even so, there was a catch, as Indian companies were riding on a cost plank, the billings were competitive and always under pressure. Meanwhile, due to a spurt on the domestic shore, the costs (most importantly, manpower) were always on the incline. Quite like miss Muffet (the IT players) had been sitting on a tuffet, eating curd and whey, before the spider (price rise) came and sat beside her.

Since 2002, the INR started appreciating, and IT companies were caught in a quandary. With every rise in exchange rate, the margins (almost anorexic) were furthered squeezed. Yet, the companies weathered the situation with fair stoicism. The fact that the government was proselytizing rapid growth and thus giving away tax sops, could have played on the minds. Anyways, there was little noise about the gradual increase in the INR rates.

As the INR continued on its northward trek, some noises were made, now and then, here and there. Steadily, the squeaks became a chorus, and much concern was expressed at the way the currency tide was turning. But when the trek turned to a sprint, the IT industry was wrought with fear. A pall of despondency descended on the sunshine sector, everyone discussed the issue with aggravated disbelief. Doomsday scenarios were plotted. And everyone spoke about how the rise would be the toughest challenge faced by the industry, an uphill battle for survival. Experts proclaimed that the rise of the INR was impacting the competitiveness of Indian players and would lead to companies favoring other locations.

Yet, what everyone seemed to miss was that the rise of the INR was a natural economic phenomenon and, to be correct, was not really a steep rise. It was more a case of USD depreciation (read the box Rupee Up or Dollar Down?).

Time to go Desi
If there was ever a time to sing the Indian song, it is now. Over the last many decades the IT players have been looking beyond India for growth, nothing bad in that. But in these years, the domestic pie has been increasing steadily. Consider this, according to the DQ20 figures, the domestic IT market has touched Rs 73,315 crore (growing by 27.2%) as IT spreads to B and C tier towns. A good indicator of this has been the fact that during the past year, over 11 lakh notebooks and 49 lakh desktops have been sold.

MR Venkatesh, a CA based in Chennai, and author of many papers on the various economic issues including exchange rate, thumps the table enthusiastically. "I have always believed that there is huge potential in the domestic market, after all, the population of India is greater than the combined population of the US and Europe. It is simply a no-brainer. Now that the INR has strengthened, it makes an even more compelling case," he says. He talks of how the Indian Railways has made use of technology in a big way not only to increase its efficiency but also to grow revenues. "Like railways, there are many more IT success stories waiting to happen," he adds.

The process might have already started. Till date, while TCS, Infosys, Wipro, and others were blazing trails overseas, the IBMs and the HPs became huge players on the domestic scene. Thus every big outsourcing deal like TCSs ABN Amro, was matched by IBMs big domestic deals like Bharti and Idea. The MNCs were marching away with the domestic cherries most of the time. Not anymore.

There seems to be a change in the mood now, as players are focusing on the market with renewed zeal. A good illustration would be the latest TCS deal with BSNL, worth over Rs 570 crore. "If players believe that the rupee will continue to appreciate and appreciation is not going to be reversed soon, it may provide an additional incentive to develop the domestic market," says Alok Ray, former professor of economics, IIM Calcutta, and visiting professor of economics, University of Pittsburgh, USA.

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