The dollar is constantly falling against all major world currencies. The rupee, on its own right, is strengthening, thanks to huge capital inflows to Indian stock markets, which have made a habit of reaching new peaks. The 30-share Bombay Stock Exchange Sensex now takes a few sessions to add 1,000 more points.

This has got the Finance Minister worried. While his checks have come in different ways, citing different reasons, many market observers believe it is primarily the strengthening rupee that has got the minister worried. The export industry is worried and the FMs repeated calls to check capital inflow from FIIs is all about keeping the rupee rise in check.

There have been many concerns about the future of Indias most celebrated exports industryIT services. Many analysts and observers have questioned whether the party is over for Indian exporters, whether the growth will be sustained, some even going to the extent of predicting tough times ahead.

IT Manpower Growth In India

The almost smooth graph shows there is no reason to worry, even now. If anything, the industry should continue to get worried about meeting the demand in manpower

How Valid are these Fears?
Interestingly, unlike many other industries, in IT exports, there is a pointer to the near future at least. Manpower ramp-up is a good (though not the absolute) measure of how the industry is going to do in the next few quarters.

And, by that account, the industry seems to be on strong wickets.

Net Up
The quarterly financial performances indicate the past; the deals show an overall health of the industry in future. The one metric that accurately paints the picture of the industrys future is addition of manpower.

And, here is how it looks (see graph). Seven companies (TCS, Infosys, Wipro, Satyam, HCL, Hexaware, and Tech Mahindra) together added close to 29,000 people (net addition)one-and-a-half times the number added in the previous quarter.

A look at the net addition trends shows that after the dip in JFM 2006, the net additions have been rising. The net addition in the last quarter was a notch less than the high of JAS 2006.

That busts the myth that the industry has been in some sort of slowdown. That was myth No 1.

Net Additions

The net addition, at 29,000, shows that JAS 07 was one of the best quarters

Myth No 2: the big five may not be affected by the slowdown so much; but others are. Again, the numbers speak for themselves. Hexaware, the smallest in this group, registered the maximum quarter-on-quarter growth at 18.2%. Tech Mahindra had a remarkable 9.2%; the only large company which managed such a growth in manpower was TCS.

As the figures show, the manpower growth is not influenced by any one company. All the seven companies (in this list) have shown growth between 6% to 18%. Patnis results were not out at the time of going to press, hence we had to exclude it.

TCS: A New No 1
This is also the quarter in which TCSwhich has made the habit of becoming No 1 in anything related to ITadded another feather to its cap by becoming the first IT firm in India to cross the 100,000 employees mark. It ranks next only to IBM among global IT services firms.

But, the real achievement that the entire industry can celebrate is that TCS became the largest private sector employer in India. A services firm acquiring that status in a country like India shows where the Indian economy is heading.

And lest you forget, TCS achieved this landmark, even as it retained the No 1 Best Employer in IT in India in the DQ BES 2007, for the fourth year in a row.

Endnote
And you thought the Indian IT industry was in for some kind of slowdown?

Research by Sandeep Kumar Sharma
maildqindia@cybermedia.co.in